If the weather-predicting groundhog sees his shadow, it allegedly means six more weeks of winter. If he doesn’t, it means an early spring. However, Punxsutawney Phil’s winter prognoses have only been right about 39% of the time.

There is only one Punxsutawney Phil, but many challengers to his throne. How accurate are they? These weather experts decided to find out.

The day eventually evolved into what we know it today. In 1886, Groundhog Day was acknowledged for the first time in Punxsutawney by a local newspaper, Weathers Wags, according to the club. In 1887, the first official pilgrimage to see Phil on Gobbler’s Knob while he made his predictions were made.