Rafael is strengthening and will likely become a hurricane by Tuesday night as it batters the western Caribbean on the first leg of an uncertain journey toward the US Gulf Coast. Forecasters are warning there’s more uncertainty than usual about where the storm could go once it’s in the Gulf of Mexico midweek.

Tropical Storm Rafael is passing south of western Jamaica and is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane possibly by Tuesday evening.Rafael, which formed Sunday and was previously known as Potential Tropical Cyclone 18,