Understanding Multivariate Models: Forecasting Investment Outcomes

Discover how multivariate models use multiple variables for investment forecasting, risk analysis, and decision-making in ...
Chemistry World

Probability model guides synthesis of interwoven catenane structure

A simple mathematical model has helped chemists selectively synthesise a novel interwoven catenane structure. Researchers say ...
Risk

Forward ordinal probability models for point-in-time probability of default term structure: methodologies and implementations for IFRS 9 expected credit loss estimation and ...

Common ordinal models, including the ordered logit model and the continuation ratio model, are formulated by a common score (ie, a linear combination of given explanatory variables) plus rank-specific ...
FiveThirtyEight

Our New Live In-Game Win Probabilities Are Here For The NBA Playoffs

The NBA playoffs are almost here, with the play-in tournament tipping off later tonight. But while the regular season was careening toward a dramatic finish, we were hard at work creating a live ...
J. The Jewish News of Northern CaliforniaOpinion

AI’s systems of probability are far removed from the Jewish culture of debate

Worse, the models “hallucinate” — meaning, they invent. A study of AI tools used in the legal domain shows 58% to 82% ...
Seeking Alpha

Credit Spreads And Default Probabilities: A Simple Model Validation Example

Traders in bonds and credit default swaps are bombarded with information on the default probabilities implied by credit spreads using a simple ratio. This ratio predicts that the credit spread will be ...