We estimate income and taxes for the wealthiest group of US households by matching Forbes 400 data to the individual, business, estate, and gift tax returns of the corresponding group in 2010–2020. In ...

This paper compares the impacts of critical mineral price and oil price on an economy in a unified neoclassical growth model.

Furthermore, greater correlation (and hence a smaller optimal bidder pool) yields the target a higher surplus from the sale (i.e., higher premium). We test the model empirically and show that M&A ...

Bank failures can stem from runs on otherwise solvent banks or from losses that render banks insolvent, regardless of withdrawals. Disentangling the relative importance of liquidity and solvency in ...

Does generative artificial intelligence (AI) reinforce or reduce productivity differences across workers? Existing evidence largely studies AI within firms and occupations, where organizational ...

We examine how workers perceive the trade-offs of freelancing using a novel survey design that explores the nature of workers' perceptions of their own jobs and the implications of work arrangements ...

We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative ...

We use newly available, and externally validated, administrative data containing all US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) arrests from September 2015-October 2025. Beyond demonstrating ...

This paper quantifies the effects of large-scale deportations on wages, prices, and real incomes in the United States. We impute the legal status for each worker in the American Community Survey by ...

This paper uses microdata on U.S. mutual fund and ETF portfolios from SEC Form NPORT to study American investment in Chinese Renminbi (RMB)–denominated bonds. We show that, even as total foreign ...

We analyze real returns on U.S. and U.K. government debt during major wars and the COVID-19 pandemic over the past three centuries. Wars are associated with sharply negative real returns on ...

We analyze the information content of the digital footprint – information that people leave online simply by accessing or registering on a website – for predicting consumer default. Using more than ...